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Home >> Samples >> ECO 6214 : Applied Business and Economics Forecasting >> ECHO 6214 : Module 6, Assignment 6: Forecasting | Due: Sun Apr 27, 2025 11:59pm

ECHO 6214 : Module 6, Assignment 6: Forecasting | Due: Sun Apr 27, 2025 11:59pm ...

ECHO 6214 : Module 6, Assignment 6: Forecasting

Instructions

Submit your answers to all of the questions in a Word document. Download the data sets and use Excel to solve the problems.

Question 1. A national supplier of jet fuel is interested in forecasting its sales. Download the sales data  for the periods 2001, Q1 to 2016, Q4.

  • Plot these sales against time. What, if any, seasonal pattern do you see in the plot? Explain.
  • Deseasonalize the data by calculating the centered moving average. Plot the deseasonalized data on the graph created in (a). Calculate the seasonal index for each quarter. Write a short explanation of why the results make sense.
  • Develop a trend for the data USING deseasonalized SALES (NOT ACTUAL SALES) and plot that trend line on the graph developed in (a). Compare the deseasonalized sales data  and the trend line. Does there appear to be a cyclical pattern in the data? Explain.
  • For the historical period, plot the values estimated by the time series decomposition model with the original data.
  • Make a forecast of sales for the four quarters of 2017. Using the actual data for that year given in the table, calculate the RMSE:

 The quarterly sales of the Jet Fuel for the previous four quarters are presented in the table:

    JET FUEL SALES  
Quarter Forecast Actual Squared Error
2017Q1   66.81  
2017Q2   77.52  
2017Q3   82.76  
2017Q4   74.51  
    Sum of Squared Errors=  
    Mean-squared Errors=  
    Root Mean-Squared Errors=  

 

 

 

 





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